Target Share Is Lying to You. Use Targets Per Route Run.
The most-quoted receiver stat hides the one thing that actually predicts volume.
Dana Whitfield
Usage & Efficiency
5 min read
Target share is the stat everyone quotes because it is easy to find. It is also the stat most likely to mislead you in July, because it says nothing about how often a receiver was actually on the field to earn those targets.
Why targets per route run wins
Targets per route run divides a receiver's targets by the routes he actually ran. It measures how much the offense looks his way when he is out there, independent of how banged up the room was or how many snaps he happened to play. That is the signal that carries from one season to the next.
A receiver with an ordinary target share but an elite targets-per-route figure is usually a buy: the volume is coming as soon as the snaps do. The reverse — big share, thin per-route number — is often a mirage propped up by injuries around him.
“Share tells you what the room did. Per-route tells you what the quarterback wants to do.”
This initial build ships with demonstration data. Projections, rostered percentages and movement are illustrative and will be replaced when a live data provider and editorial backend are connected.
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